This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the performance of forecasting based on neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to forecast tourist demand: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman neural network....

This study aims to analyze the effects of data pre-processing on the performance of forecasting based on neural network models. We use three different Artificial Neural Networks techniques to forecast tourist demand: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman neural network....

This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic unobserved components time series models with stochastic trend, seasonal and cycle components. Convenient state space formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood...

This paper evaluates the time series factor estimators using autoregressive model for the short-term forecasting of Ghana’s GDP growth based on the exploitation of early releases of monthly real sector indictors. The principal component analysis was performed using forecast equation on...

We investigate whether the KOF Economic Barometer - a leading indicator released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - is useful for short-term prediction of quarterly year-on-year real GDP growth in Switzerland. Using a real-time data set consisting of historical vintages of GDP data and the...

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard...