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Mexico; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2004
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sources of Mexico’s economic growth since the 1960s, and compares various decompositions of historical growth into trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflation process is assessed. The paper presents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825457
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New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Matheson, Troy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876579
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Ghana; Will it Be Gifted or Will it Be Cursed?
Aydin, Burcu - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
Will Ghana’s oil production from 2011 accelerate progress toward middle-income status, or will it retard gains in living standards through a possible "resource curse"? This paper examines the likelihood of "resource curse" effects, drawing on a dataset of 150 low and middle income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009019601
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The failure to predict the Great Recession. The failure of academic economics? A view focusing on the role of credit
Rivas, Maria Dolores Gadea; Perez-Quiros, Gabriel - Banco de España - 2012
Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest financial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we analyze whether such claims...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862273
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Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations
Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - European Central Bank - 2011
In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645430
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Forecasting the business cycle. Summary of the 8th International Institute of Forecasters workshop hosted by the Banque de France on 1-2 December 2011 in Paris
L. Ferrara. - In: Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque … (2011) 24, pp. 135-144
In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010569713
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Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
Aruoba, S. Boragan; Terrones, Marco; Kose, M. Ayhan; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839326
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Real-Time Measures of the Output Gap and Fiscal Policy Stance
Virkola, Tuomo - Elinkeinoelämän Tutkimuslaitos (ETLA) - 2014
This paper studies real-time measures of the output gap and fiscal policy stance estimates for EU countries. We construct a comprehensive real-time data set on fiscal forecasts and study whether there are systematic differences between the European Commission and IMF estimates of the output gap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010987128
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Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations
Badarinza, Cristian; Buchmann, Marco - 2011
In this paper we discuss the role of the cross-sectional heterogeneity of beliefs in the context of understanding and assessing macroeconomic vulnerability. Emphasis lies on the potential of changing levels of disagreement in expectations to influence the propensity of the economy to switch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605452
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Would DSGE models have predicted the Great Recession in Austria?
Breuss, Fritz - 2016
story-telling and policy analysis were in the forefront of applications since its inception, the forecasting perspective of … models are inferior in ex-ante forecasting a crisis. Surprisingly however, it turned out that not all but those models which … only detect the turning point of the Austrian business cycle early in 2008 but they also succeeded in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011630409