This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

The new (2002) version of the "Pre-Accession Economic Program" has to take into account both the experience accumulated in the implementation of its previous (2001) form, and the changes occurred during 2001-2002 in the domestic and international environment, which have affected the Romanian...

The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...

This article presents alternative scenarios of macroeconomic dynamics for Romania. The author starts by presenting the structure of the model used for simulations. Two scenarios are developed for the 2003-2010 period. The first one, the desirable scenario, embodies performances envisaged in the...

The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...

Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are...

March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate...

In the wake of the recent international economic recession in 2008-2009, forecasting methods designed to anticipate business cycles have been widely revisited. Recent innovative econometric methods were presented and widely discussed by academics and economists from international and national...

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices in Norway. The framework combines quantile regressions using a broad set of uncertainty indicators with a skewed t-distribution, allowing for time-variation and asymmetry in the...