A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

The current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially to examine short-term tactical predictions (with forecast horizons less than three months), as set out in...

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery...

A number of studies have shown that providing point forecasts to decision makers can lead to improved production planning decisions. However, point forecasts do not convey information about the level of uncertainty that is associated with forecasts. In theory, the provision of prediction...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...