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Crude oil prices have been on a run-up spree in recent years. Their dynamics were characterized by high volatility, high intensity jumps, and strong upward drift, indicating that oil markets were constantly out-of-equilibrium. An explanation of the oil price process in terms of the underlying...
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This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for a broad range of commodities, including energy … and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. While energy futures prices are generally unbiased predictors of …. In addition, futures prices do approximately as well as a random walk in forecasting future spot prices, and vastly …
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