Chinn, Menzie D.; Coibion, Olivier - Department of Economics, College of William & Mary - 2010
This paper examines the relationship between spot and futures prices for a broad range of commodities, including energy … and/or (2) accurate predictor of subsequent spot prices. While energy futures prices are generally unbiased predictors of …. In addition, futures prices do approximately as well as a random walk in forecasting future spot prices, and vastly …