period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …

period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …

period 1970Q1 - 2003Q4 for ten macroeconomic variables. The years 2000 - 2003 are used as forecasting period. A range of … different univariate forecasting methods is applied. Some of them are based on linear autoregressive models and we also use some … forecasting variables which need considerable adjustments in their levels when joining German and EMU data. These results suggest …

data for the pre-Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods … precise than those obtained with standard area-wide data. A recursive pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting experiment using …

explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …

The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead … results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is an empirical issue. Empirical results in the literature often … go unexplained. This leaves forecasters in the dark when confronted with the option of forecast aggregation. We take our …

Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic … aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed …, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly …