. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the … time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. …

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed … from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation … Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …

This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different …

pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE …

contribute to anchoring of expectations about nominal variables; its effects on disagreement about real variables are moderate. …