This paper is the first one to: (i) provide in-sample estimates of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules augmented with an indicator of financial stability for the case of South Africa, (ii) analyse the ability of linear and nonlinear monetary policy rule specifications as well as nonparametric and...

In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. Firstly, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by other important measures a downswing did actually occur. It is...

Quantitative methods to forecasting tourist arrivals can be sub-divided into causal methods and non-causal methods. Non-causal time series methods remain popular tourism forecasting tools due to the accuracy of their forecasting ability and general ease of use. Since tourist arrivals exhibit...

Measures of core inflation convey critical information about an economy. They have a direct effect on the policy-making process, particularly in inflation-targeting countries, and are utilized in forecasting and modelling exercises. In South a Africa the prices indices on which inflation is...