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The El Farol problem revisited
Böhm, Volker - 2015
(1994) argues that persistent on-converging sequences of rates of participation with permanent forecasting errors occur due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010487597
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The El Farol Problem Revisited
Böhm, Volker - Institut für Mathematische Wirtschaftsforschung, … - 2015
(1994) argues that persistent on-converging sequences of rates of participation with permanent forecasting errors occur due …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011191544
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
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A note on the representative adaptive learning algorithm
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2014
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010420579
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Using sentiment surveys to predict GDP growth and stock returns
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647399
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The case for higher frequency inflation expectations
Guzman, Giselle C. - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
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A Note on the Representative Adaptive Learning Algorithm
Galimberti, Jaqueson; Berardi, Michele - KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Department of Management, … - 2014
best overall performance both in terms of forecasting accuracy and in matching (future) survey forecasts. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762441
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Empirical calibration of adaptive learning
Berardi, Michele; Galimberti, Jaqueson K. - 2015
performance in forecasting macroeconomic variables and in matching survey forecasts. Our results indicate a great degree of …. Calibrations to match survey forecasts are found to be lower than those derived according to the forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316387
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A systematic comparison of professional exchange rate forecasts with judgmental forecasts of novices: Are there substantial differences?
Schmidt, Robert; Leitner, Johannes - 2004
markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010296526
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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the next realisation of random draws coming from different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119505