Knotek, Edward S. Knotek, II; Zaman, Saeed - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - 2014
Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the …’s nowcasting accuracy improves as information accumulates over the course of a month or quarter, and it easily outperforms a …