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Markov-switching three-pass regression filter

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Marcellino, … - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011793192

Model averaging in Markov-switching models : predicting national recessions with regional data

Guérin, Pierre; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011791491

Markov-switching MIDAS models

Guérin, Pierre; Marcellino, Massimiliano - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2011

This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854481

Large vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and flexible priors

Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2016

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011549652

Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models

Abbate, Angela; Marcellino, Massimiliano - 2016

We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...