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Several approaches for subset recovery and improved forecasting accuracy have been proposed and studied. One way is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010291802
-term predictions. Due to the characteristics of the residuals, a bootstrapping method of forecasting was also used, yielding even …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292409
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
Recent articles suggest that a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with shrinkage is a good forecast device even when the number of variables is large. In this paper we evaluate different variants of the BVAR with respect to their forecast accuracy for euro area real GDP growth and HICP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010352397
This paper compares the predictive ability of the factor models of Stock and Watson (2002) and Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2005) using a "large" panel of US macroeconomic variables. We propose a nesting procedure of comparison that clarifies and partially overturns the results of similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604726
as a pseudo real time forecasting exercise, i.e. due account is taken of the pattern of available monthly variables over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605021
distribution. As an empirical illustration, we use euro area data and compare the forecasting performance of the New Area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605581
provide more robust forecasts. We investigate this issue for forecasts from a range of short-term forecasting models. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011606017
have been shown to improve forecasting models for various economic and financial series. In the aftermath of the global … financial crisis, modeling and forecasting mortgage demand and subsequent approvals have become a central issue in the banking … number of new mortgage approvals and markedly improve their nowcasting and forecasting performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063503
during unstable periods, such as the Great Recession, but also remain over more tranquil periods. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012120406