We propose simulation-based forecasting methods for the noncausal vector autoregressive model proposed by Lanne and … simulation procedures. Simulation experiments demonstrate that gains in forecasting accuracy are achieved by using the correct … of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting …

In Bayesian analysis of VAR-models, and especially in forecasting applications, the Minnesota prior of Litterman is … report on the forecasting performance of the different prior distributions considered in the paper. …

the beginning of 2018. They also have performed well in forecasting the direction of inflation. In terms of the …This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two …

Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused …

shown to be specific for commodity and market. A forecasting comparison on the basis of the identified models suggests that …

in forecasting from using bivariate models remained small otherwise. …

long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in …

research reports conclude that the difference between the entertained forecasting models is 'insignificant'. This paper …

several forecasting experiments. …

capable of forecasting agricul-tural prices on a quarterly basis. Firstly, we find that seasonal cycles in agricultural …