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This paper presents some conventional and new measures of market, credit, and liquidity risks for government bonds. These measures are analyzed from the perspective of a sovereign's debt manager. In particular, it examines duration, convexity, M-square, skewness, kurtosis, and VaR statistics as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825661
This paper analyzes broad money demand (M2) in Guyana from January 1990 to September 1999; a period marked by deep transformations aimed at shifting Guyana from a centralized to a market economy. The paper develops a stable error-correction model based on a long-run cointegrating vector of money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825837
To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing non-linear tail comovement between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the so-called CoVaR measure that captures the asymmetric response of the banking system to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142002
Forecasting the returns from investments in mutual funds is a very difficult problem. This study examines a new … forecasting approach and system for the performance of mutual funds in Greece. This is accomplished via an application of a … implemented into an easy-to-use expert forecasting system. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008539404
Forecasting the returns from investments in mutual funds is a very difficult problem. This study examines a new … forecasting approach and system for the performance of mutual funds in Greece. This is accomplished via an application of a … implemented into an easy-to-use expert forecasting system. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005048883
Timmermann (1994) to stock market forecasting, and show that their proposed recursive predictions are much less robust than naive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091069
This paper reviews the main instruments and associated yield curves that can be used to measure financial market participants’ expectations of future UK monetary policy rates. We attempt to evaluate these instruments and curves in terms of their ability to forecast policy rates over the period...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605024
In the present paper we analyse whether fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influences or more structural factors have contributed to the recent decline in bond yields in the US. For that purpose, we start with a very general model of interest rate determination in which risk premia are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012058558
multi-step out-of-sample forecasting competition. It turns out that forecasts are improved substantially when allowing for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317369
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011312202