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This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available software package for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009277001
We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model, based on the Gaussian likelihood conditional on initial values. We give conditions on the parameters such that the process X_{t} is fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b;...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008552198
We calculate, by simulations, numerical asymptotic distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for fractional unit roots and cointegration rank. Because these distributions depend on a real-valued parameter b which must be estimated, simple tabulation is not feasible. Partly due to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492935
In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147851
We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147852
Based on recent evidence of fractional cointegration in commodity spot and futures markets, we investigate whether a fractionally cointegrated model can provide statistically and/or economically significant forecasts of commodity returns. Specifically, we propose to model and forecast commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147853
We apply the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices in five commodity markets (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). To this end, we first extend the FCVAR model to accommodate deterministic trends in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147856
This manual describes the usage of the accompanying freely available Matlab program for estimation and testing in the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. This program replaces an earlier Matlab program by Nielsen and Morin (2014), and although the present Matlab...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011147857