This paper analyzes the experience of 99 advanced and developing economies in restoring fiscal sustainability during 1980 - 2008 after banking crises, which led to large accumulation of public debt. It finds that successful debt reductions have relied chiefly on generation of large primary...

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The...

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme...

Large fiscal financing needs, both in advanced and emerging market economies, have often been met by borrowing heavily from domestic banks. As public debt approached sustainability limits in a number of countries, however, high bank exposure to sovereign risk created a fragile inter-dependence...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Nigeria. All assessment criteria through end-September were met except for one civil service-related measure. Remedial measures have prevented the civil service reform program from being compromised....

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Barbados has been growing at a solid pace, and the outlook for 2007 is generally favorable. Robust output growth of about 4 percent is expected to continue in 2007, supported by tourism and construction. Inflation, which was pushed...

The Slovak Republic’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that sound macroeconomic management and a wide range of fundamental structural reforms are supporting nominal convergence with European Union norms. Real GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in 2005, driven by an improvement in the...

This paper reviews the Central African Republic’s three-year arrangement under the poverty reduction and growth facility. Concerns about the social impact of higher fuel prices have delayed implementation of an automatic pricing formula and caused serious fiscal losses. The new financing...

Strong economic fundamentals helped Panama contain the adverse impact of the global economic downturn and financial turmoil. The 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP of Panama in 2008 grew by 9.2 percent. Panama’s large banking system has weathered the global financial...

Mexico’s policy stance has focused on balancing domestic and external conditions, supporting the recovery while rebuilding policy buffers through fiscal consolidation and reserve buildup. Growth has remained resilient during the first half of 2011 and is expected to continue into 2012,...