This paper assesses the Layard et al. (1991) NAIRU framework for explaining unemployment. Their approach is distinct from the natural rate of unemployment framework in that it postulates a short-run NAIRU influenced by 'hysteresis'. It is pointed out that this is not hysteresis in the meaning...

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by 'structural' variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The curious...

This paper assesses the Layard et al. (1991) NAIRU framework for explaining unemployment. Their approach is distinct from the natural rate of unemployment framework in that it postulates a short-run NAIRU influenced by 'hysteresis'. It is pointed out that this is not hysteresis in the meaning...

This paper reviews the evidence on the effects of recessions on potential output. In contrast to the assumption in mainstream macroeconomic models that economic fluctuations do not change potential output paths, the evidence is that they do in the case of recessions. A model is proposed to...

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by ‘structural’ variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The...

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by “structural” variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The curious...