Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with all forms of...

The increasing demand of relevant, viable, coherent data users, in useful time, to early detec economic vulnerabilities and turnpoints in business cycles, especially during the economical and financial crisis, demands a prompt, coordinated response by statistical institutions. High quality short...

The bootstrap is a convenient tool for calculating standard errors of the parameters of complicated econometric models. Unfortunately, the fact that these models are complicated often makes the bootstrap extremely slow or even practically infeasible. This paper proposes an alternative to the...

The transactional data of a queueing system are the recorded times of service commencement and service completion for each customer served. With increasing use of computers to aid or even perform service one often has machine readable transactional data, but virtually no information about the...

Most online feedback mechanisms rely on voluntary reporting of privately observed outcomes. This introduces the potential for reporting bias, a situation where traders exhibit different propensities to report different outcome types to the system. Unless properly accounted for, reporting bias...

Although organizations appear to learn from obvious failures, we argue that it is harder for them to learn from "near-misses"--events in which chance played a role in averting failure. In this paper, we formalize the concept of near-misses and hypothesize that organizations and managers fail to...

I describe and discuss the sometimes heated controversy surrounding the recognition heuristic (RH) as a model of inferential decision making. After briefly recapitulating the history of the RH up to its current version, I critically evaluate several specific assumptions and predictions of the RH...

We compared Turkish and English students' soccer forecasting for English soccer matches. Although the Turkish students knew very little about English soccer, they selected teams on the basis of familiarity with the team (or its identified city); their prediction success was surprisingly similar...