The paper focuses on the decomposition of inflation persistence into the linear and nonlinear components. The hypothesis is that the nonlinear component of inflation persistence results from a technological shock and might positively contribute to economic growth. The microfoundations are...

Empirical evaluation of macroeconomic uncertainties and their use for probabilistic forecasting are investigated. A new weighted skew normal distribution which parameters are interpretable in relation to monetary policy outcomes and actions is proposed. This distribution is fitted to recursively...

One of the most important aims of monetary policy of the Bank of Russia is to reduce CPI inflation under simultaneous stabilization of ruble exchange rate to the major world currencies. While such task setting is obviously contradictory and requires usage of additional instrument, it is unclear...

In our paper, using Granger causality tests on data covering 1995-2011 we find that credit is an important source of money supply endogeneity in Russia, with the two distinct sources of money supply endogeneity present: the one in the sense of accommodationist approach (through state-controlled...

Using monthly and quarterly data for 2000 – 2012 for Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia we estimate monetary policy rules for these countries. The aim of our study is to find out similarities and differences in monetary policy practices in these countries in order to evaluate potential problems in...