Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the … credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This … study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …

patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …

of topics, including but not limited to inflation, household finance, the labor market, and the housing market. There are …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

This paper reinvestigates the performance of trimmed-mean inflation measures some 20 years since their inception … measures in forecasting headline inflation. …

We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we … measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A … key advantage of this approach is that it provides a causal interpretation in terms of how inflation events affect long …