The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several …

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …

may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations … feedback (strategic complementarity) - where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust) - coordination … by coordination on trend-following behavior leading to (almost-)self-fulfilling equilibria. Heterogeneous expectations …

interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …

interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …

learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no … Cycle models. To our knowledge this thesis is the first attempt to formally introduce adaptive learning and expectation … various econometric adaptive learning tools: Auto ARIMA, VAR and AR(2) models. In all simulations, output and other economic …