The paper proves that the Bayesian approach to learning and expectations formation implies no propositions that could … observations, and the assumption of Bayesian rationality. Since no betting strategy is irrational, Bayesianism is useless as a …

roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several …

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …

prevalent in early and late stages of a learning process, whereas reason governs decisions in intermediate stages. Examples …

Different theories of expectation formation and learning usually yield different outcomes for realized market prices in … dynamic models. The purpose of this paper is to investigate expectation formation and learning in a controlled experimental … from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by …

interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …

learn, form their expectations, and make decisions regarding savings and production for future periods. There are no … Cycle models. To our knowledge this thesis is the first attempt to formally introduce adaptive learning and expectation … various econometric adaptive learning tools: Auto ARIMA, VAR and AR(2) models. In all simulations, output and other economic …