We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse the impact of exogenous shocks on an open economy, using an overlapping generation model where individuals live for two periods. The three-pillar pension system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a defined benefits pension fund, and (3)...

In this paper we document the growing dispersion of external and internal balances between countries in the North and South of the Euro area over the time period 1992 to 2007. We find a persistent divergence process that seems to have started with the introduction of the common currency and has...

This paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim weelaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well asMarkov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we comparethe forecasting...

With the development of real-time databases, N vintages are available for T observations instead of a single realization of the time series process. Although the use of panel unit root tests with the aim to gain in efficiency seems obvious, empirical and simulation results shown in this paper...

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk-sharing. While these studies typically employ absolutemeasures to account for a country''s integration in international capital markets, we devise a relative measure that...

In this paper, we estimate the demand for workers by sector and occupation using system dynamic OLS techniques to account for the employment dynamics dependence across occupations and sectors of industry. The short run dynamics are decomposed into intra and intersectoral dynamics. We find that...

Over de verhouding tussen overheid en markt wordt steeds vaker de grootst mogelijk onzin verkondigd. Dat gebeurt niet alleen in de universitaire (economische) wetenschap, maar vooral ook in de politieke wereld van de beleidsmakers. Dat heeft fatale gevolgen voor ons wetenschappelijk denken over...

We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse in this context the impact of the financial crisis on the aggregate economy, using an overlapping generations model where individuals live for two periods. The system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a Defined Benefit pension fund, and...

This paper proposes a new statistical framework originating from the traditional credit-scoring literature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning Systems (EWS). Based on an assessment of the predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, the panel logit model is outperforming the...

We combine the issues of dealing with variables sampled at mixed frequencies and the use ofreal-time data. In particular, the repeated observations forecasting (ROF) analysis of Stark andCroushore (2002) is extended to an autoregressive distributed lag setting in which the regressorsmay be...