We model a three-pillar pension system and analyse the impact of exogenous shocks on an open economy, using an overlapping generation model where individuals live for two periods. The three-pillar pension system consists of (1) a PAYG pension system, (2) a defined benefits pension fund, and (3)...

In this paper we document the growing dispersion of external and internal balances between countries in the North and South of the Euro area over the time period 1992 to 2007. We find a persistent divergence process that seems to have started with the introduction of the common currency and has...

This paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim weelaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well asMarkov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we comparethe forecasting...

With the development of real-time databases, N vintages are available for T observations instead of a single realization of the time series process. Although the use of panel unit root tests with the aim to gain in efficiency seems obvious, empirical and simulation results shown in this paper...

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk-sharing. While these studies typically employ absolutemeasures to account for a country''s integration in international capital markets, we devise a relative measure that...

This paper compares two approaches towards the empirical inertia of inflation and output. Two variants that produce persistence are added to a baseline DSGE model of sticky prices: 1) sticky information applied to firms, workers, and households; and 2) a backward-looking inflation indexation...

By distinguishing between discretionary and non-discretionary fiscal policy, this paper analyses the stability of fiscal rules for EMU countries before and after the Maastricht Treaty. Using both Instrumental Variables and GMM techniques, it turns out that discretionary fiscal policy remains...

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new measure of contagion. Our approach to testing contagion is based on the frequency analysis of causality developed recently by Breitung and Candelon (2004). This approach handles, in a unified framework, several of the statistical problems identified...

Empirical evidence shows that government spending crowds in private consumption, a Keynesian phenomenon. The current state of the art, New Keynesian models based on optimising households and _rms, is not able to predict such a result. We show with a graphical framework as well as a formal model...

This paper proposes a new testing approach for panel unit roots that is, unlike previously suggested tests, robust to nonstationarity in the volatility process of the innovations of the time series in the panel. Nonstationarity volatility arises for instance when there are structural breaks in...