Based on standard New Keynesian models I show that policy counterfactuals based on the theoretical structural VAR representations of the models fail to reliably capture the impact of changes in the parameters of the Taylor rule on the (reduced-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated...

Based on standard New Keynesian models I show that policy counterfactuals based on the theoretical structural VAR representations of the models fail to reliably capture the impact of changes in the parameters of the Taylor rule on the (reduced-form) properties of the economy. Based on estimated...

This paper reconsiders the conventional use of econometric models, especially identified vector autoregressive models, in guiding monetary policy. The main question I explore is whether these models are seriously flawed because they ignore asymmetries in the business cycles. Toward that end,...

Past empirical research on monetary policy in open economies has found evidence of the 'delayed overshooting', the 'forward discount' and the 'exchange rate' puzzles. We revisit the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates by applying Uhlig's (2005) identification procedure that involves...

Since Christopher Sims's Macroeconomics and Reality" (1980), macroeconomists have used structural VARs, or vector autoregressions, for policy analysis. Constructing the impulseresponse functions and variance decompositions that are central to this literature requires factoring the...

It is well documented in the literature that identified vector autoregression (VAR) models often produce puzzling results when the effect of unexpected monetary policy movements is estimated. Many authors find that raising interest rate generates protracted appreciation of the exchange rate (the...

It is well documented in the literature that identified vector autoregression (VAR) models often produce puzzling results when the effect of unexpected monetary policy movements is estimated. Many authors find that raising interest rate generates protracted appreciation of the exchange rate (the...

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....

It is well documented in the literature that identified vector autoregression (VAR) models often produce puzzling results when the effect of unexpected monetary policy movements is estimated. Many authors find that raising interest rate generates protracted appreciation of the exchange rate (the...