Using data over the 1973q1-2004q1 period, this paper identifies an important role for the real exchange rate in affecting UK labour market conditions. When the real exchange rate is undervalued, short-run unemployment falls as firms respond to an improvement in domestic competitiveness by...

Using UK data over the 1973q1-2004q1 period, we find that the dynamics of the real exchange rate, real wages and unemployment vary both with large versus small real exchange rate disequilibria and rising versus falling unemployment regimes. The short-run real exchange rate adjusts only when...

Using UK data over the 1973q1-2004q1 period, we find that the dynamics of the real exchange rate, real wages and unemployment vary both with large versus small real exchange rate disequilibria and rising versus falling unemployment regimes. The short-run real exchange rate adjusts only when...

We argue that although UK monetary policy can be described using a Taylor rule in 1992- 2007, this rule fails during the recent financial crisis. We interpret this as reflecting a change in policymakers’ preferences to give priority to stabilising the financial system. Developing a model of...

We explore how the ECB sets interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions. Using both real-time and revised information, we consider linear and nonlinear policy functions in inflation, output and a measure of financial conditions. We find that amongst Taylor rule models, linear and...

We explore how the ECB sets interest rates in the context of policy reaction functions. Using both real-time and revised information, we consider linear and nonlinear policy functions in inflation, output and a measure of financial conditions. We find that amongst Taylor rule models, linear and...

This paper studies optimal real time monetary policy when the central bank takes the volatility of the output gap and inflation as proxy of the undistinguishable uncertainty on the exogenous disturbances and the parameters of its model. The paper shows that when the uncertainty surrounding a...

We present empirical evidence that the marked rise in liquidity in 2001-2007 was due to large and persistent current account deficits and loose monetary policy. If this increase in liquidity was a pre-condition for the financial crisis that began in July 2007, we can conclude that loose monetary...

We argue that although UK monetary policy can be described using a Taylor rule in 1992-2007, this rule fails during the recent financial crisis. We interpret this as reflecting a change in policymakers’ preferences to give priority to stabilising the financial system. Developing a model of...

We present empirical evidence that the marked rise in liquidity in 2001-2007 was due to large and persistent current account deficits and loose monetary policy. If this increase in liquidity was a pre-condition for the financial crisis that began in July 2007, we can conclude that loose monetary...