This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...

March 2011 marked the introduction of the MNB’s Monetary Policy Model (MPM), representing a paradigm shift in both inflation forecasting and monetary policy decision support. In contrast to the previous conditional projections, the MPM offers an endogenous definition for both the policy rate...

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the new “g3†structural model of the Czech National Bank and illustrate how it is used for forecasting and policy analysis. As from January 2007 the model was regularly used for shadowing official forecasts, and in July 2008 it became the core...

This paper investigates the identification, the determinacy and the stability of ad hoc, "quasi-optimal" and optimal policy rules augmented with financial stability indicators (such as asset prices deviations from their fundamental values) and minimizing the volatility of the policy interest...