To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of...

In this paper we use U.S. real-time vintage data and produce combined density nowcasts for quarterly GDP growth from a system of three commonly used model classes. The density nowcasts are combined in two steps. First, a wide selection of individual models within each model class are combined...

In this paper we describe Norges Bank's system for averaging models (SAM) which produces model-based density forecasts for Norwegian Mainland GDP and inflation. We combine the forecasts from three main types of models typically used at central banks: Vector autoregressive models, leading...

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their inflation sentiment.We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared by many components of the CPI basket. In a...

Issues related to classification, interpretation and estimation of inflationary uncertainties are addressed in the context of their application for constructing probability forecasts of inflation. It is shown that confusions in defining uncertainties lead to potential misunderstandings of such...

It has been argued that the effect of a change in the monetary policy interest rate on aggregate demand may be larger at higher levels of indebtedness through its impact on cash flows. However, the extent of credit constraints may be at least as important, if not more so. In particular, monetary...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is reasonable to expect that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both 'naïve' forecasts, and forecasts from...

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is a successful forecast targeting central bank. It is expected that Norges Bank produces inflation forecasts that are on average better than other forecasts, both naive forecasts, and forecasts from econometric models outside...