In this study, we provide a comprehensive estimation of the contemporary Phillips curve relationship in the South African economy using a novel deep learning technique. Our approach incorporates multiple measures of economic slack/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate...

The authors solve the IS puzzle for the G7 countries. They find that five of the G7 countries have the expected significant negative relationship between the output gap and the real-rate gap; the time series of the remaining two show material deviation from expected IS-curve behavior. The...

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This paper examines exchange rate passthrough to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980-2009. A methodological innovation allows various short-run...

This paper investigates whether a Taylor rule accurately describes the South African Reserve Bank's reaction function in setting interest rates using quarterly data, covering the period since inflation targeting was formally adopted in 2000. The classic Taylor rule is modified to determine...

This paper examines the relationship between cyclical output and inflation in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. This includes models that incorporate the New Keynesian, Fuhrer-Moore and backward-looking Phillips curves. The main finding is that these models imply a strong...

We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global...

We develop a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous price setting frequency. Whether a firm updates its price in a given period depends on an analysis of expected cost and benefits modelled by a discrete choice process. A firm decides to update the price when expected benefits outweigh...

This paper analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output,and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analyses make use of a simple VAR...

There is no consensus over the importance of "global forces" on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which "global forces" are relevant. Three conclusions stand out....