Despite the recent trend towards greater transparency of monetary policy, in many respects mystique still prevails in central bank speak. This paper shows that the resulting perception of ambiguity could be desirable. Under the plausible assumption of imperfect common knowledge about the degree...

The present paper assesses whether monetary policy effects are asymmetric over the business cycle by estimating a univariate model for GDP including additionally the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured...

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data...

This paper deals with an old issue which nevertheless continues to be of great relevance for central bankers: the impact of monetary policy on the economy. The empirical evidence discussed in the paper suggests that since, over the medium term, inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and...

The present paper assesses whether monetary policy effects are asymmetric over the business cycle by estimating a univariate model for GDP including additionally the first difference of the 3-month Austrian interest rate as a measure for monetary policy. The asymmetry of the effects is captured...

This paper deals with an old issue which nevertheless continues to be of great relevance for central bankers: the impact of monetary policy on the economy. The empirical evidence discussed in the paper suggests that since, over the medium term, inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon and...

Despite the recent trend towards greater transparency of monetary policy, in many respects mystique still prevails in central bank speak. This paper shows that the resulting perception of ambiguity could be desirable. Under the plausible assumption of imperfect common knowledge about the degree...

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data...

The current financial, economic and fiscal crisis is among other things characterised by complex interrelations between financial, fiscal, macroeconomic and political instability. One instability breeds another, with feedback loops generating self-reinforcing adverse cycles: The financial crisis...