Under inflation forecast targeting, central banks such as the ECB adjust policy to keep expected inflation on target. We evaluate the ECB’s inflation forecasts: they are unbiased and efficient but contain little information at forecast horizons beyond three quarters. In a New Keynesian model...

This article proposes a novel mechanism by which changes in the distribution of money holdings have real aggregate effects. I develop a flexible-price model of segmented asset markets in which monetary policy influences the aggregate demand elasticity via heterogenous money holdings. Because...

This paper proposes a novel mechanism by which changes in the distribution of money holdings have real effects. Specifically, I develop a flexible-price model of segmented asset markets that generates real aggregate effects of monetary policy through the dependence of optimal markups on the...

Under inflation forecast targeting, central banks such as the ECB adjust policy to keep expected inflation on target. We evaluate the ECB's inflation forecasts: they are unbiased and efficient but contain little information at forecast horizons beyond three quarters. In a New Keynesian model...

This paper proposes a novel mechanism by which changes in the distribution of money holdings have real effects. Specifically, I develop a flexible-price model of segmented asset markets that generates real aggregate effects of monetary policy through the dependence of optimal markups on the...

We show that the impact of supply and monetary policy shocks on consumer prices is state-dependent. First, we let the data determine two inflation regimes and find that they are characterized by high and low inflation volatility. We then identify upstream supply shocks using instrumental...

In contrast to the notion that the exchange-rate regime is non-neutral, there is little evidence that EMU has systematically changed the European business cycle. In fact, we find the volatility of macroeconomic variables largely unchanged before and after the introduction of the euro. Exceptions...

We show that the impact of supply and monetary policy shocks on consumer prices is state-dependent. First, we let the data determine two inflation regimes and find that they are characterized by high and low inflation volatility. We then identify upstream supply shocks using instrumental...

How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally - across countries - within the...