We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … pronounced convex relationship between inflation and the output gap, meaning that the coefficient in the Phillips curve on the …

policy. The direct inflation targeting strategy used by the European Central Bank in applying its monetary policy has the … first criterion of implementation the expression of inflation target in terms of „headline inflation†(consumer price … consumer price index, this one ensuring the necessary transparency related to the effects of inflation phenomenon. A strong …

Headline inflation in the euro area jumped to more than three percent in the summer after years of relatively low … inflation rates well below the target of close to but below two percent set by the ECB until July 2021. One of the main reasons … for the rise in inflation is the increase in energy prices since the beginning of 2021. However, there are further …

In this paper, I investigate how inflation signals from different types of newspapers influence household inflation … tabloid's indicator is more effective for predicting perceived inflation among low-income and lower-education households … inflation expectations across various segments of society, providing valuable insights for policymakers to tailor communication …

This paper uses a "trendy" approach to understand UK inflation dynamics. It focuses on the time series to isolate a low …-frequency and slow-moving component of inflation (the trend) from deviations around this trend. We find that this slow-moving trend … explains a substantial share of UK inflation dynamics. International prices are significantly correlated with the short …

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a … focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in …. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However …

This study analyzes how firms form their inflation expectations during a regime change in monetary policy and a … transition to a low-inflation environment. Using the Bank of Israel survey of firms, we document the basic properties of firms …' inflation expectations and examine how Israeli firms update their inflation expectations after receiving new information about …

/tightness and inflation expectations, contributing to the debate on the relevance of the Phillips curve in South Africa, where … previous findings have been inconclusive. Our analysis reveals that long-run inflation expectations are the primary driver of … inflation, with these expectations anchored around 5% historically but declining since the financial crisis. This trend suggests …

This paper examines the impact of carbon pricing on firms' inflation expectations and its implications for central … French firm-level survey data. A change in carbon price increases firms' inflation expectations as well as their own expected … negative forecast errors in the medium-/long-run. We show that a significant portion of the increase in inflation expectations …

Inflation expectations are very important when it comes to monetary policy and its decisions. In countries which are … applying inflation targeting, inflation expectations reflect prediction of economic agents of movement of inflation rate in mid … and long term. Anchored inflation expectations and their movements within target tolerance band are pointing to …