Showing 1 - 10 of 23
In recent years, an impressive body or research on predictive accuracy testing and model comparison has been published in the econometrics discipline. Key contributions to this literature include the paper by Diebold and Mariano (DM: 1995) that sets the groundwork for much of the subsequent work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010334261
In this paper, we show the first order validity of the block bootstrap in the context of Kolmogorov type conditional distribution tests when there is dynamic misspecification and parameter estimation error. Our approach differs from the literature to date because we construct a bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263212
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263214
Forecasters and applied econometricians are often interested in comparing the predictive accuracy of nested competing models. A leading example of nestedness is when predictive ability is equated with ?out-of-sample Granger causality?. In particular, it is often of interest to assess whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263216
This paper introduces bootstrap specification tests for diffusion processes. In the one-dimensional case, the proposed test is closest to the non parametric test introduced by Ait-Sahalia (1996), in the sense that both procedures determine whether the drift and variance components of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263219
This paper makes two contributions. First, we outline a simple simulation based framework for constructing conditional distributions for multi-factor and multi-dimensional diffusion processes, for the case where the functional form of the conditional density is unknown. The distributions can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266342
Our objectives in this paper are twofold. First, we introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266361
This paper outlines testing procedures for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of multiple conditional distribution models. The tests that are discussed are based on either the comparison of entire conditional distributions or the comparison of predictive confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276819
This chapter discusses estimation, specification testing, and model selection of predictive density models. In particular, predictive density estimation is briefly discussed, and a variety of different specification and model evaluation tests due to various authors including Christoffersen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282675
This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010282854