Showing 1 - 10 of 106
Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615620
Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277881
In a simple dynamic macroeconomic model, it is shown that uncertainty about structural parameters does not necessarily lead to more cautious monetary policy, refining the accepted wisdom concerning the effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321249
Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010321294
We examine whether the robustifying nature of Taylor rule cross-checking under model uncertainty carries over to the case of parameter uncertainty. Adjusting monetary policy based on this kind of cross-checking can improve the outcome for the monetary authority. This, however, crucially depends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327808
We employ the robust-satisficing approach to derive robust monetary policy when parameters of a macro model are uncertain. There is a trade-off between robustness of policies and their performance. Hence, under uncertainty, the policy maker is assumed to be content with policy performance at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143679
We use Bayesian methods to estimate the preferences of the US Federal Reserve by assuming that monetary policy is performed optimally under commitment since the mid-sixties. For this purpose, we distinguish between three subperiods, i.e. the pre-Volcker, the Volcker-Greenspan and the Greenspan...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012143701
Abstract In this paper, we consider the sample estimators for the expected return, the variance, the value-at-risk (VaR), and the conditional VaR (CVaR) of the minimum VaR and the minimum CVaR portfolio. Their exact distributions are derived. These expressions are used for studying the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014622225
This paper provides a complete program for the valuation of aggregate non-life insurance liability cash flows based on claims triangle data. The valuation is fully consistent with the principle of valuation by considering the costs associated with a transfer of the liability to a so-called...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011996662
Mean-variance portfolio optimization is more popular than optimization procedures that employ downside risk measures such as the semivariance, despite the latter being more in line with the preferences of a rational investor. We describe strengths and weaknesses of semivariance and how to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013200564