Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little...

For the problem of model selection, full cross-validation has been proposed as alternative criterion to the traditional cross-validation, particularly in cases where the latter one is not well defined. To justify the use of the new proposal we show that under some conditions, both criteria share...

For the problem of model selection, full cross-validation has been proposed as alternative criterion to the traditional cross-validation, particularly in cases where the latter one is not well defined. To justify the use of the new proposal we show that under some conditions, both criteria share...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

Shrimp sector in Ecuador is nowadays one of the fastest-growing non-oil sectors towards the international market. In despite of this growth, to our knowledge most of the little producers of shrimps in Ecuador take important operational decisions based upon empirical knowledge, without...

In van der Laan and Dudoit (2003) we propose and theoretically study a unified loss function based statistical methodology, which provides a road map for estimation and performance assessment. Given a parameter of interest which can be described as the minimizer of the population mean of a loss...

Current statistical inference problems in genomic data analysis involve parameter estimation for high-dimensional multivariate distributions, with typically unknown and intricate correlation patterns among variables. Addressing these inference questions satisfactorily requires: (i) an intensive...

Suppose that we observe a sample of independent and identically distributed realizations of a random variable. Assume that the parameter of interest can be defined as the minimizer, over a suitably defined parameter space, of the expectation (with respect to the distribution of the random...

When trying to learn a model for the prediction of an outcome given a set of covariates, a statistician has many estimation procedures in their toolbox. A few examples of these candidate learners are: least squares, least angle regression, random forests, and spline regression. Previous articles...