This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) review the macroeconomic impact of the resource sector. Lao PDR’s economic performance is becoming increasingly dependent on the activities of the large mining and hydropower...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in Jamaica has been adversely affected by shocks. Real GDP contracted sharply in late 2004 following the devastating effects of Hurricane Ivan. Thereafter, while output recovered, it was dampened by the poor performance of...

This note explores how the economic thinking about macroeconomic management has evolved since the crisis began. It discusses developments in monetary policy, including unconventional measures; the challenges associated with increased public debt; and the policy potential, risks, and...

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these...

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy...

The analysis in this paper suggests that the large fiscal deficits that Pakistan has experienced over most of the period since 1970 led to some crowding out of private investment, resulting in slower output growth than would otherwise have been observed. Past fiscal deficits have also resulted...

This paper presents a comprehensive econometric analysis of the determinants of deflation in Hong Kong SAR. The analysis helps to determine the relative contributions of factors such as increased productivity, scarce money supply, and excess capacity in determining deflation. The main conclusion...

This Selected Issues paper for South Africa presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in the country. The conduct of monetary policy has been complicated by a variety of unanticipated events that have had important effects on inflation. Exposed to exchange rate and other shocks, the...

The quantity theory of money is applied in this article to define aggregate demand as a rectangular hyperbola that describes combinations of price level for different levels of real product with given quantity of money. The real product is measured on the X-axis as a quantity of composite...