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Common and Idiosyncratic Components in Real Output; Further International Evidence

Simone, Francisco Nadal-De - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

This paper uses the classical (level) definition of business cycles to analyze the characteristics-duration, amplitude, steepness, and cumulative output movements-of the real GDP series of France, Germany, Italy, the rest of the euro area, and the United States. An index of concordance and its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263734

The Perils of Tax Smoothing; Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

Tanner, Evan; Carey, Kevin Joseph - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simulations confirm that such a policy would require undesirably volatile fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264166

Ghostbusting; Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Billmeier, Andreas - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic analysis. I construct and compare common output gap measures for five European...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826587

Who is Still Haunted by the Specter of Communism? Explaining Relative Output Contractions Under Transition

Elborgh-Woytek, Katrin; Berengaut, Julian - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

The paper analyzes the initial output decline in transition economies by estimating a crosssection model stressing two major factors-conflicts and the legacies of the Soviet period. We link the Soviet legacies in place at the outset of the transition to the subsequent path for the development of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769029

What Causes Firms to Hide Output? the Determinants of Informality

Inchauste, Gabriela; Gradstein, Mark; Dabla-Norris, Era - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

In many developing countries, a significant part of economic activity takes place in the informal sector. Earlier work has examined the determinants of the size of the informal sector, focusing separately on factors such as tax and regulation burden, financial market development, and the quality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769293

Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico

Faal, Ebrima - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604901

Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604941

Relating the Knowledge Production Function to total Factor Productivity; An Endogenous Growth Puzzle

Joutz, Frederick L.; Abdih, Yasser - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005

The knowledge production function is central to R&D-based growth models. This paper empirically investigates the … knowledge production function and intertemporal spillover effects using cointegration techniques. Time-series evidence suggests … there are two long-run cointegrating relationships. The first captures a long-run knowledge production function; the second …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605296

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap; An Application to Sweden

Saxena, Sweta Chaman; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605416

Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU Water Framework Directive

Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia - 2008

The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable attention on the part of scientists as well as of politicians and those involved in government administration. The existence of uncertainty becomes particularly apparent in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304368

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