Subjective beliefs play a role in many economic decisions. There is a large theoretical literature on the elicitation … of beliefs, and an equally large empirical literature. However, there is a gulf between the two. The theoretical … literature proposes a range of procedures that can be used to recover beliefs, but stresses the need to make strong auxiliary …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

probability. With some notable exceptions, the empirical literature seems intent on either making those strong assumptions or … structural maximum likelihood methods. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability … which we elicit subjective probabilities. We calibrate the estimates of subjective beliefs assuming that choices are made …

Understanding choice under risk requires knowledge of beliefs and preferences. A variety of methods have been proposed … to elicit peoples’ beliefs. The efficacy of alternative methods, however, has not been rigorously documented. Herein we … use an experiment to test whether an induced probability can be recovered using an elicitation mechanism based on peoples …

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …