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Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions

Pollock, Andrew C.; Macaulay, Alex; Thomson, Mary E.; … - 2005

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435350

The influence of the forecast horizon on judgemental probability forecasts of exchange rate movements

Thomson, Mary E.; Pollock, Andrew C.; Henriksen, Karen B.; … - 2004

models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435351

Inventory tracking for unstructured environments via probabilistic reasoning

Rajaraman, Mabaran; Bannerman, Kyle; Shimada, Kenji - In: Logistics 4 (2020) 3, pp. 1-29

Workpiece location is critical to efficiently plan actions downstream in manufacturing processes. In labor-intensive heavy industries, like construction and shipbuilding, multiple stakeholders interact, stack and move workpieces in the absence of any system to log such actions. While...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194685

Tracking tagged inventory in unstructured environments through probabilistic dependency graphs

Rajaraman, Mabaran; Philen, Glenn; Shimada, Kenji - In: Logistics 3 (2019) 4, pp. 1-23

Logging and tracking raw materials, workpieces and engineered products for seamless and quick pulls is a complex task in the construction and shipbuilding industries due to lack of structured storage solutions. Additional uncertainty is introduced if workpieces are stacked and moved by multiple...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194757

Engle & Granger cointegration test for GDP and public consumption in the Republic of North Macedonia

Ivanovski, Zoran; Ivanovska, Nadica; Korunovska, Vesna - In: UTMS Journal of Economics 13 (2022) 2, pp. 221-235

In this paper, we test cointegration between GDP and Public consumption of the Republic of North Macedonia, for quarterly data of twenty years' time series (2000Q1-2019Q4). We present results of two methods for cointegration test: first, residual regression test table and second, Engle & Granger...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465803

Granger causality test for the government's capital expenditures on the GDP of the Republic North Macedonia in VAR environment

Ivanovski, Zoran; Narashanov, Zoran; Korunovska, Vesna - In: UTMS Journal of Economics 11 (2020) 2, pp. 183-201

In this paper, we test Granger causality in VAR environment of the State Budget's capital expenditures on the GDP. There is no doubt that capital expenditures for infrastructure projects, energetic, communications and similar have direct and indirect impact on the GDP growth, but non-essential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014465848

A functional representation of potential surprise ordering

Kwak, Se Ho - 2022

In the history of economic thought, Shackle was one of the representative critics about probability based economic … probability. In 1980s, the potential surprise is axiomatized by Katzner as Kolmogorov-styled measure defined on the &#x1d70e …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480721

Análisis de los determinantes y costos de la informalidad en las pequeñas empresas: Un estudio empírico para el Perú

Silupu Garcés, Brenda Liz; Reyes Landa, Sergio David - In: Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y … 27 (2019), pp. 156-165

Informality in small businesses is a widespread phenomenon in Latin American countries. In Peru it represents 50% of the business units, a situation that implies the knowledge of the determinants of this reality to contribute to the design of public policies. Thus, the present work studies the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494400

Expectativas para que México cambie el destino de sus exportaciones

Puls, Sergio Lagunas; Cervantes Bello, Carmen Lilia - In: Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y … 28 (2019), pp. 3-22

This article analyses the Mexican exports to China and the European Union along with the effects of a possible shift of Mexican products to the above markets due to a change within the US-Mexico trade agreements. Beginning with a review of Mexican trade agreements with the European Union and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014494530

Nested identification of subjective probabilities

Dreze, Jacques H. - In: SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 3 (2012) 1/2, pp. 259-271

The theory of games against nature relies on complete preferences among all conceivable acts (case 1). Aumann and Drèze (Am Econ J Microecon 1(1):116,(2009) consider situations where preferences are defined only for a given set of acts (case 2).We extend these results to situations where (i)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010317103