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Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU Water Framework Directive
Sigel, Katja; Klauer, Bernd; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia - 2008
The question of how to deal with uncertainty in environmental decision-making is cur-rently attracting considerable attention on the part of scientists as well as of politicians and those involved in government administration. The existence of uncertainty becomes particularly apparent in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010304368
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Idealizations of uncertainty, and lessons from artificial intelligence
Smith, Robert Elliott - 2015
Making decisions under uncertainty is at the core of human decision-making, particularly economic decision-making. In economics, a distinction is often made between quantifiable uncertainty (risk) and un-quantifiable uncertainty (Knight, Uncertainty and Profit, 1921). However, this distinction...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011291850
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Decidability in complex social choices
Marengo, Luigi; Pirino, Davide; Settepanella, Simona; … - 2012
process has an high probability to reach a final decision. We also better qualify the degree of manipulability of such a final …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328377
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Decidability in complex social choices
Amendola, Gennaro; Marengo, Luigi; Pirino, Davide; … - 2013
In this paper we develop on a geometric model of social choice among bundles of interdependent elements (objects). Social choice can be seen as a process of search for optima in a complex multi-dimensional space and objects determine a decomposition of such a space into subspaces. We present a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328500
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Price competition model in decentralized and centralized supply chains with demand disruption
Wenlong, Chai; Huijun, Sun; Wei, Wang; Jianjun, Wu - In: Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management (JIEM) 6 (2013) 1, pp. 16-24
disruption for two retailers occurs with different probability. We analyze the effect of occurrence probability of demand … supply chain are decreasing with the occurrence probability of demand disruption. Originality/value: It is helpful for supply …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011939023
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Structuring Tchebycheff-Type Inequalities – A Systematical Approach / Systematisierung tschebyscheffartiger Ungleichungen – Ein Überblick
Strotmann, Harald - In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 219 (1999) 3-4, pp. 468-493
Summary Though there is a huge variety of different Tchebycheff-type inequalities in the literature a systematised structuring is missing. The few existing surveys remain rather enumerative. Therefore in this paper a structuring of Tchebycheff-type inequalities is suggested which is based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014608708
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Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions
Pollock, Andrew C.; Macaulay, Alex; Thomson, Mary E.; … - 2005
A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability … the existing accuracy measures, enabling detailed comparisons of probability forecasts with ex-post empirical … directional probability exchange rate forecasts for the US Dollar/Swiss Franc from 23/7/96 to 7/12/99 and the findings are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435350
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The influence of the forecast horizon on judgemental probability forecasts of exchange rate movements
Thomson, Mary E.; Pollock, Andrew C.; Henriksen, Karen B.; … - 2004
models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009435351
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MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES OF RACEHORSE EARNINGS AND PROFITABILITY
Vinzant, Patrick L.; Neibergs, J. Shannon - 1999
-likelihood estimates of probability distribution parameters show that expected purse earnings follow an exponential distribution with a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009444414
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Firing versus continuing employment if an economic setback is expected
Göcke, Matthias - 2009
. However, this job protection effect is reduced if the expected probability of a setback increases, and if the expected … duration and size of a recession grows. If a severe recession is expected with a high probability the option to wait with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265859