This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

This paper is designed to analyze the impact of public debt on economic growth in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the literature of the debt dynamics as well as fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a fiscal model of economic growth. Finally, we estimate...

The Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement with Ireland highlights that Ireland’s policy implementation has continued to be steadfast. Ownership of the program remains strong despite the considerable challenges the country is facing. Ireland’s progress in strengthening the...

The purpose of the present paper is to examine theoretically and empirically how the maturity structure of government debt is affected by changes in its main macroeconomic determining factors. We organize our investigation around a maturity-structure model for Greece in which the optimal...

This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of studies estimate fiscal policy reaction functions-that is, relationships between the primary fiscal balance and its determinants, including public...