Macroeconomic imbalances are large, and structural problems are deep-rooted in Portugal. The new government’s strong commitment to program implementation is encouraging. Fiscal performance so far demonstrates the need to refocus the fiscal strategy on strong expenditure control, as...

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage...

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal...

The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of...

This Selected Issues paper for Ireland highlights that fiscal consolidation resulted in a tremendous reduction in public debt from nearly 100 percent of GDP in 1991 to about 30 percent in 2004. This has reflected a combination of policy decisions and economic circumstances. Excluding 2001, when...

The 2005 Article IV Consultation for the United States reports that robust productivity growth and high corporate profits have contributed to a strong rebound in business investment and some acceleration in employment. The financial sector appears well positioned to provide continued support to...

This paper analyzes interference and timeliness in the revenue-forecasting process, using new data on revenue-forecasting practices in low-income countries. Interference is defined as the occurrence of a significant deviation from purely technical forecasts. A theoretical model explains...

This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong,...

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts...

A very ambitious fiscal adjustment effort is under way. Fiscal institutional and sectoral reforms have been elaborated for a more durable adjustment. Greece’s determination toward a comprehensive modernization of the health sector, beginning with a far-reaching reform of state enterprises...