In this note we present a direct and simple approach to obtain bounds on the asymptotic minimax risk for the estimation of restrained binominal and multinominal proportions. Quadratic, normalized quadratic and entropy loss are considered and it is demonstrated that in all cases linear estimators...

We propose point forecast accuracy measures based directly on distance of the forecast-error c.d.f. from the unit step function at 0 (\stochastic error distance," or SED). We provide a precise characterization of the relationship between SED and standard predictive loss functions, showing that...

We propose and explore several related ways of reducing reliance of point forecast accuracy evaluation on expected loss, E(L(e)), where e is forecast error. Our central approach dispenses with the loss function entirely, instead using a \stochastic error divergence" (SED) accuracy measure based...

When there is uncertainty concerning the appropriate statistical model to use in representing the data sampling process and corresponding estimators, we consider a basis for optimally combining estimation problems. In the context of the multivariate linear statistical model, we consider a...

When there is uncertainty concerning the appropriate statistical model to use in representing the data sampling process and corresponding estimators, we consider a basis for optimally combining estimation problems. In the context of the multivariate linear statistical model, we consider a...

This paper considers estimation and inference for the multinomial response model in the case where endogenous variables are arguments of the unknown link function. Semiparametric estimators are proposed that avoid the parametric assumptions underlying the likelihood approach as well as the loss...

In this note we present a direct and simple approach to obtain bounds on the asymptotic minimax risk for the estimation of restrained binominal and multinominal proportions. Quadratic, normalized quadratic and entropy loss are considered and it is demonstrated that in all cases linear estimators...

Although economic processes and systems are in general simple in nature, the underlying dynamics are complicated and seldom understood. Recognizing this, in this paper we use a nonstationary-conditional Markov process model of observed aggregate data to learn about and recover causal influence...