The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the...

This Selected Issues paper for Indonesia uses a small structural macroeconomics model of the Indonesian economy to analyze the inflation outlook and monetary policy challenges. The Bank of Indonesia (BI) introduced its Inflation Targeting Framework in July 2005 with the goal to reduce inflation...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

This Selected Issues paper examines the acceleration of inflation over the past year in Chile, identifying domestic shocks to food and energy prices as main drivers. The paper uses the Jeanne-Rancière model to calculate Chile’s optimal ratio of international reserves to GDP. It analyzes the...

Uruguay’s inflation and inflation expectations exceed the inflation target, and the gap has been widening in recent years. To help bring it to the mid-point of the target, Banco Central del Uruguay (BCU) needs to maintain a tightening bias in addition to strengthening its communication....

The Lebanese authorities have requested follow-up Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance with an access of 12.5 percent of quota to support their economic program. The 2006 war with Israel led to a political stalemate and repeated outbreaks of domestic fighting until the formation of a national...

This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

Uruguay has consolidated economic gains, supported by strong macroeconomic policies and a broadly favorable external environment. Growth has exceeded expectations, unemployment has reached record lows, and poverty has continued to fall, while economic vulnerabilities have been significantly...

Sound policies and favorable external conditions have led to a strong economic recovery, but important challenges lie ahead. Uruguay’s near-term economic prospects are generally favorable. The main short-term challenge is rising inflation in the wake of vigorous growth and capital...

This Selected Issues paper on Turkey discusses the new monetary framework adopted by the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Instead of relying on one interest rate as inflation-targeting, the CBRT resorted to raising it as inflation pressures intensify and lowering it as they abate. The...