Classic real options theory rests on two debatable assumptions: projects require a fixed investment and generate cash flows that follow a random walk. Relaxing both assumptions leads to radically different conclusions regarding the optimal timing of investment. We model investment using a...

Urban structures and urban growth rates are highly persistent. This has far-reaching implications for the optimal size and timing of new construction. We prove that rational developers postpone construction not because prospects are gloomy, but because they are bright. The slow mean reversion in...

Urban structures and urban growth rates are highly persistent. This has far-reaching implications for the optimal size and timing of new construction. We prove that rational developers postpone construction not because prospects are gloomy, but because they are bright. The slow mean reversion in...

This paper studies the aggregate implications of microeconomic investment irreversibility and idiosyncratic uncertainty in a simple growth model by highlighting real option effects. We endogenize the drift rate of real option by connecting it to the state of the economy. Thereby, we extend the...

This paper studies the aggregate implications of microeconomic investment irreversibility and idiosyncratic uncertainty in a simple growth model by highlighting real option effects. We endogenize the drift rate of real option by connecting it to the state of the economy. Thereby, we extend the...

This paper analyzes the impact of different types of barriers on the decision to invest using a simple framework based on stochastic discount factors. Our intuitive approach proposes an alternative to the real options methodology that does not rely on the “smooth-pasting condition.” An...

Employing a continuous-time real options modeling framework, this paper scrutinizes the incentives to invest in German offshore wind farms. The focus of the analysis is the mode of action of the German feed-in tariff system for offshore wind energy deployment. The numerical results reveal that...

We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31,000 managers across 41 countries. We elicit subjective probability distributions for future own-firm sales and measure firm-level uncertainty with their mean absolute deviations. Analogously, we...