Showing 1 - 10 of 382
worsen the nowcasting performance. Finally, we show how releases of new data can be viewed through the lens of the dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011156773
Forecasting future inflation and nowcasting contemporaneous inflation are difficult. We propose a new and parsimonious … model for nowcasting headline and core inflation in the U.S. price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the …’s nowcasting accuracy improves as information accumulates over the course of a month or quarter, and it easily outperforms a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114917
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/ forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010580967
In this study we construct the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. To the best of our knowledge, this has never been done before. We evaluate the extent to which the inclusion of the index contributes to more accurate forecasts of GDP growth compared with a benchmark autoregressive model. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010553354
This paper analyses nowcasting of manetary policy in an uncertain data environment.Nowcasting induces a relative … asymmetry-a ratio of asymmetric preference for output nowcasting to the one for inflation in real-time.We propose a nowcasting … Taylor rule to eliminate biases in the asymmetric nowcasting. Notably,three results are obtained as follows.First, central …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010568559
We develop monthly indicators for tracking short-run trends in real GDP growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903576
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010956173
In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595792
This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274409
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010330366