We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the...

This paper proposes two simple tests that are based on certain time domain properties of I(d) processes. First, if a time series follows an I(d) process, then each subsample of the time series also follows an I(d) process with the same value of d. Second, if a time series follows an I(d)...

Recent developments allow a nonparametric separation of the continuous sample path component and the jump component of realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting for this allows improved forecasting of future...

We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realized volatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures. Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statistical...

We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniques to compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jump components, and measures based on prices of...

We consider the properties of three estimation methods for integrated volatility, i.e. realized volatility, the Fourier estimator, and the wavelet estimator, when a typical sample of high-frequency data is observed. We employ several different generating mechanisms for the instantaneous...