In the era of Basel II a powerful tool for bankruptcy prognosis isvital for banks. The tool must be precise but also easily adaptable tothe bank's objections regarding the relation of false acceptances (TypeI error) and false rejections (Type II error). We explore the suitabil-ity of Smooth...

This paper presents a behavioral finance model of the exchange rate. Agents forecast theexchange rate by means of very simple rules. They can choose between three groups offorecasting rules: fundamentalist, extrapolative and momentum rules. Agents using afundamentalist rule are not able to...

In the ideal Black-Scholes world, financial time series are assumed 1) stationary (time homogeneous) and 2) having conditionally normal distribution given the past. These two assumptions have been widely-used in many methods such as the RiskMetrics, one risk management method considered as...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al.,1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants'probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in...

Over recent years, study on risk management has been prompted by the Basel committee for regular banking supervisory. There are however limitations of some widely-used risk management methods that either calculate risk measures under the Gaussian distributional assumption or involve numerical...

It is widely recognized that "market failure" prevents efficient risksharing in natural disaster insurance. As a consequence, many countriesadopted institutional frameworks presenting public sector participation,often praised as public-private partnerships. We define risk selection asa situation...

The focuses are on the study of risk management of natural disasters from the perspective of complex systems, using the example of Mexico. It develops the theory of an arrival process taking into account an early warning system and we use it to create appropriate actuarial models...

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of capital and risk transfer instruments on diversification and insolvency risk in a parent-subsidiary relationship. To better assess the effects, we compare this setting to the case of a holding company and an integrated financial group. In the...

In financial groups enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly importantin controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in thegroup. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint defaultprobabilities of the group’s legal entities in...

Participating life insurance contracts typically contain various types of implicit options. These implicit options can be very valuable and can thus represent a sig-nificant risk to the insurance companies issuing these contracts in case of in-sufficient risk management. Options can get...