The publication of a projected path of future policy decisions by central banks is a controversially debated method to improve monetary policy guidance. This paper suggests a new approach to evaluate the impact of the guidance strategy on the predictability of monetary policy. Using the example...

This paper looks at some recent work on estimating quadratic variation using realized variance (RV) - that is, sums of M squared returns. This econometrics has been motivated by the advent of the common availability of high-frequency financial return data. When the underlying process is a...

In this article we provide an asymptotic distribution theory for some nonparametric tests of the hypothesis that asset prices have continuous sample paths. We study the behaviour of the tests using simulated data and see that certain versions of the tests have good finite sample behavior. We...

We provide three characterizations of the minimal martingale measure P associated to a given d- dimensional semimartingale X. In each case, P is shown to be the unique solution of an optimization problem where one minimizes a certain functional over a suitable class of signed local martingale...

We review the main results in the theory of quadratic hedging in a general incomplete model of continuous trading with semimartingale price process. The objective is to hedge contingent claims by using portfolio strategies. We describe two types of criteria: the so-called (local)...