Over more than a decade, advertising rates per 1000 viewers, television consumption as well as the number of advertising spots have been steadily increasing. As a consequence, television has developed to the most important medium for the advertising industry and attracts a 40% share of German...

Summary A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable...

Replaced with revised version of paper 02/10/10.

We revisited the issue of return predictability in three major developed markets (USA, UK and Japan) using a unique dataset from the Wharton Research Data Services database and a comprehensive set of traditional and recent statistical methods. We specifically employed a variety of traditional...

In the time domain, the observed cyclical behavior of the real wage hides a range of economic influences that give rise to cycles of differing lengths and strengths. This may serve to produce a distorted picture of wage cyclicality. Here, we deploy frequency domain methods that allow us to asses...