This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of...

This report is an effort to document some quantitative results on the possibility of introducing CO<SUB align="right"><SMALL>2</SMALL></SUB> reduction policies. It concludes that even for an industrialised country with a very efficient energy system that implies high carbon taxes, enough options are available to reduce carbon taxes to...</small></sub>

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.

The application of a decision analysis methodology to a small-scale water-supply/aquifer-contamination problem is presented. The main characteristic of the study is the development of a series of alternative strategies to ensure a continuous water supply to a village under variable risk...

Potential adjustments in U.S. commodity program for rice are evaluated in this paper using stochastic analysis in a global modeling framework. Corresponding threshold and loss-compensatory increases in target price and loan rates are determined with assumed outright and gradual elimination of...

We prove that every two-player nonzero-sum Dynkin game in continuous time admits an "epsilon" equilibrium in randomized stopping times. We provide a condition that ensures the existence of an "epsilon" equilibrium in nonrandomized stopping times.

Research in the area of stochastic models for actuarial use in South Africa is limited torelatively few publications. Until recently, there has been little focus on actuarialstochastic models that describe the empirical stochastic behaviour of South Africanfinancial and economic variables. A...

Standard deterministic analysis of agricultural and biofuel policies can yield incomplete or misleading results. Stochastic analysis is especially important when policies have asymmetric effects and when there is intrinsic interest in uncommon events or the distribution of possible outcomes. The...

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/13/11.