In this paper we present several new ¯ndings on the NoVaS transformation approach for volatility forecasting introduced by Politis (2003a,b, 2007). In particular: (a) we present a new method for accurate volatility forecasting using NoVaS ; (b) we introduce a \time- varying" version of NoVaS...

This paper presents empirical evidence on the existence of structural breaks in the fundamentals process underlying US stock prices. We develop an asset pricing model that represents breaks in the context of a Markov switching process with an expanding set of non-recurring states. Different...

This paper aims to bridge the gap between processes where shocks are permanent and those with transitory shocks by formulating a process in which the long run impact of each innovation is time varying and stochastic. Frequent transitory shocks are supplemented by occasional permanent shifts. The...

This study examines evidence of structural breaks in models of predictable components in stock returns related to state variables such as the lagged dividend yield, Treasury bill rate, term spread and default premium. We examine a large set of size-and-industry-sorted profolios of US stocks as...